37
QUANTIFYING THE COSTS OF INTEGRITY BREACHES
Even this estimated loss of value should be qualified as it takes into account
only those earnings lost during his expected playing career. An athlete who
plays well and displays good behaviour may increase his or her net worth
not only through richer playing contracts and endorsements but also through
commercial opportunities later in life.
FIGURE 4.1: MICHAEL VICK’S PROJECTED FUTURE CAREER EARNINGS
(PRE-SCANDAL VS. POST-SCANDAL)
Vick may draw hope from the example of basketball star Kobe Bryant, who
successfully rebuilt his career and reputation following an incident in 2003.
Bryant was then 24 years old and already a three-time NBA champion with
the Los Angeles Lakers. He had a clean, family-friendly image that appealed
to sponsors, and Bryant seemed in line to inherit the mantle once worn
by Michael Jordan as both the sport’s most dominant player and its com-
Note: Analysis assumes that the length of a marquee quarterback's NFL career is 17 years (Based on careers of Dan Marino, John Elway,
and Brett Favre);
1
Pre-scandal scenario assumes that Vick’s endorsement earnings over the remaining 11 years of his assumed
playing career would have grown at the same rate as Peyton Manning’s endorsement earnings during equivalent stages of his
career; it is assumed that Manning will continue to earn $13 million per year in endorsements (his 2009 level) from 2010-2013,
dropping to $10 million per year in 2013-2014;
2
Post-scandal scenario assumes that Vick will continue to play until 2017, but will not
receive more than $1 million annually in endorsements. Value calculations assume a discount rate of 1.79% (U.S. Treasury
Department Real Long Term Rate on 25/2/2011).
Source:
New York Times
, ESPN,
Atlanta Journal Constitution
,
Forbes
,
Sports Illustrated
;
USA Today
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$ Millions
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Pre-Scandal
Post-Scandal
Projected Future Earnings (Pre-Scandal)
1
Projected Future Earnings (Post-Scandal)
2
$9.1
$14.9
$15.0
$15.4
$17.1
$0 $0
$1.6
$5.2
$16.0
$20.0
$20.0
$20.0
$20.0
$18.0
$16.0
$20.9
$22.4
$25.7
$27.2
$27.7
$28.7 $28.7 $28.7
$25.2
$25.2
© MONITOR QUEST LTD. 2011
GUARDING THE GAME Preserving the Integrity of Sport
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