40
QUANTIFYING THE COSTS OF INTEGRITY BREACHES
FIGURE 4.3: TIGER WOODS’ PROJECTED FUTURE CAREER EARNINGS
(PRE-SCANDAL VS. POST-SCANDAL)
Despite these losses, Woods remains the top-earning athlete in the world, al-
beit by a much narrower margin over the runner-up, golfer Phil Mickelson.
25
As of this writing, Woods has not won since the scandal broke and has been
overtaken as world number one. However, the example of Kobe Bryant sug-
gests that if his professional performance returns to its previous level, and his
post-scandal management is well handled, Woods may repair his tarnished
image, at least in part.
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Pre-Scandal Post-Scandal
Projected Future Earnings (Pre-Scandal)
1
Projected Future Earnings (Post-Scandal/Recovery)
2
$87
$99
$123
$117
$121 $125
$122
$136
$163
$163
$198 $200
$174
$184
$170
$165
$165
$154
$128
$113
$116
$99
$90
$72
$72 $72 $72 $72 $72 $72 $72 $72 $72
$74
$158
$147
$ Millions
Note:
1
Pre-Scandal scenario assumes that Woods’ endorsement earnings over the next 11 years of his peak playing career would have
grown at the same rate as Michael Jordan’s endorsement earnings during the final 11 years of his playing career;
2
Post-Scandal/Recovery scenario assumes a rebound in commercial endorsements for Woods after 2011 at a rate comparable to
that of Kobe Bryant's recovery;
3
Post-Scandal/No Recovery scenario assumes a loss of $25 million per year in endorsement earnings
from 2008 levels, and is held constant through the end of Woods’ peak playing career (which is assumed to be 25 years in length,
based on peak careers of Arnold Palmer and Jack Nicklaus). Value calculations assume a discount rate of 1.79% (U.S. Treasury
Department Real Long Term Rate on 25/2/2011).
Source: MSNBC,
;
NY Times
,
Forbes
,
Sports Illustrated
,
Businessweek
,
USA Today
, ESPN,
Golf.com.
Projected Future Earnings (Post-Scandal/No Recovery)
3
© MONITOR QUEST LTD. 2011
GUARDING THE GAME Preserving the Integrity of Sport
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